– निश्चल ढुङ्गेल

यो लेख बैशाख १४, २०८० को नयाँ पत्रिका (१६औँ वार्षिकोत्सव विशेषांक) मा प्रकाशित भएको थियो। मूल लेख यहाँ पढ्नुहोस्

विश्व अर्थतन्त्र वस्तु, सेवा, पुँजी, मानिस, डाटा र विचारको विश्वव्यापी प्रवाहद्वारा अन्तर्सम्बन्धित छ । वस्तु र सेवाहरूको प्रवाहमा ग्लोबल भ्यालु चेन (विश्वव्यापी मूल्य शृंखला) निर्माण गरिएका छन् । ग्लोबल भ्यालु चेनले अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय उत्पादन साझेदारीलाई जनाउँछ, जहाँ उत्पादनलाई विभिन्न देशमा गरिएका गतिविधि र कार्यमा विभाजन गरिन्छ । हालैका विश्वव्यापी घटना (जस्तै : ऊर्जा संकट, चिप्स अभाव) ले ग्लोबल भ्यालु चेनमा तनाव सिर्जना गरेका थिए । विश्वव्यापीकरण विस्तारको अवधिमा, सस्ता वस्तु र कम श्रम लागतले मुद्रास्फीतिलाई नियन्त्रणमा राख्न मद्दत गथ्र्याे, तर अब यो प्रवृत्ति उल्टिन थालेको छ । युक्रेन युद्धलाई लिएर राष्ट्रहरूले रुससँग सम्बन्ध तोडेपछि तेल र ग्यासको मूल्य एकाएक बढ्यो । आपूर्ति शृंखला पुनर्निर्माण गर्दा व्यवसायले राजनीतिक तनावलाई तौलिरहेका छन् । नीति निर्माता र बजार दुवै महामारीको अस्थायी साइड इफेक्ट भनेर सोचिएको मुद्रास्फीति अनपेक्षित रूपमा बढेको देखेर छक्क परेका छन् ।

अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय मुद्राकोष (आइएमएफ)को ‘विश्व आर्थिक परिदृश्य’ प्रतिवेदनले विश्वव्यापी आर्थिक वृद्धि सन् २०२२ मा ३.४ प्रतिशत (अनुमानित) रहँदै सन् २०२३ मा २.९ प्रतिशत र २०२४ मा ३.१ प्रतिशतमा झर्ने अनुमान गरेको छ । २०२३ को पूर्वानुमान अक्टोबर २०२२ ‘विश्व आर्थिक परिदृश्य’मा गरिएभन्दा ०.२ प्रतिशत बिन्दु बढी तर ऐतिहासिक (२०००/१९) औसत ३.८ प्रतिशतभन्दा कम छ ।

तीन दशकमा प्रगति र समृद्धिलाई सशक्त बनाउने लगभग सबै आर्थिक शक्ति अहिले क्षयीकरणमा छन् । फलस्वरूप २०२२–३० बीचको औसत विश्वव्यापी सम्भावित कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादन (जिडिपी) वृद्धि शताब्दीको पहिलो दशकको तुलनामा करिब एकतिहाइले घटेर वार्षिक २.२५ रहने अनुमान गरिएको छ । विश्वव्यापी वित्तीय संकट वा मन्दीको अवस्थामा यी गिरावट तीव्र हुनेछन् ।

विश्व अर्थतन्त्रमा माग र उत्पादनमा सबलतासँगै धेरै देशमा मुद्रास्फीति विस्तारै घट्ने क्रममा देखिन्छ । अमेरिकी र अन्य देशका केन्द्रीय बैंकहरूले कसिलो वित्तीय नीति अनुसरण जारी राखेका छन् । मुद्रास्फीतिसँग लड्न उन्नत, विकासशील र उदीयमान सबै देशका केन्द्रीय बैंकहरूले ब्याजदर बढाइरहेका छन् । सन् २०२३ को सुरुवातमा आर्थिक गतिविधिमा सुधार हुनुको एक प्रमुख कारक ऊर्जा र खाद्य मूल्यमा गिरावट आउनु हो । महामारीपछि वस्तुको माग क्रमशः बढ्नु र विश्वव्यापी आपूर्ति शृंखलाका अवरोध कम भएकाले अधिकांश देशमा वस्तुको मूल्य र मुद्रास्फीति घट्न थालेको छ । तर, श्रम बजारको लागतले मुद्रास्फीतिमा दबाब परेको देखिन्छ । स्फीतिको स्तर अझै युद्धपूर्वको भन्दा उच्च भए पनि यसले व्यवसाय र घरपरिवारको क्रयशक्ति बढाउँदै छ । विश्वव्यापी मुद्रास्फीति सन् २०२२ मा ८.८ प्रतिशतबाट सन् २०२३ मा ६.६ प्रतिशत र २०२४ मा ४.३ प्रतिशत हाराहारीमा रहने अपेक्षा गरिएको छ । अझै पनि विश्वव्यापी मुद्रास्फीति महामारीपूर्व (२०१७–१९) को स्तर ३.५ प्रतिशतभन्दा उच्च नै हो । चीनमा कोभिड–१९ महामारीको पछिल्लो लहरले सन् २०२२ को वृद्धिलाई कम गरे पनि आर्थिक गतिविधि सुरु गरेसँगै रिकभरी अपेक्षा गरिएभन्दा तीव्र बनेको छ । यसले विश्वव्यापी आर्थिक गतिविधिमा सकारात्मक प्रभाव पार्दै आपूर्ति शृंखलामाथिको दबाब कम गर्ने र अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय पर्यटनलाई बढावा दिनेछ ।

सकारात्मक पक्ष के भने धेरै अर्थतन्त्रमा कृत्रिम मागबाट बलियो वृद्धि वा मुद्रास्फीतिमा तीव्र गिरावट सम्भव छ । नकारात्मक पक्ष चीनमा गम्भीर स्वास्थ्य परिणामहरूले पुनर्बहालीलाई रोक्न सक्छ । युक्रेनमा रुसको युद्ध लम्बिँदा ऋण संकट अझ खराब बन्न सक्छ ।

कोभिड– १९ महामारीको प्रभाव विश्वव्यापी रूपमा कायमै रहेको समयमा युक्रेन युद्धले खाद्य र ऊर्जा बजार अवरुद्ध ग¥यो जसकारण विकासोन्मुख देशहरूमा खाद्य असुरक्षा र कुपोषणमा वृद्धि भयो । यसैबीच, जलवायु संकटले धेरै देशमा असर पर्न थालेको छ । डढेलो, बाढी, आँधी र तुफानहरूले ठूलो मानवीय र आर्थिक क्षति गरिरहेका छन् ।

आइएमएफले विकसित अर्थतन्त्रमा ब्याजदर वृद्धिले उदीयमान बजार र विकासोन्मुख देशहरूको वित्तीय अवस्थालाई असर पार्न थालेको उल्लेख गरेको छ । विशेषगरी अमेरिकाको बढ्दो ब्याजदरबाट मध्यम र न्यून आय भएका देशले थुप्रै दुष्प्रभाव साक्षात्कार गर्नुपर्नेछ । उनीहरूले पुँजी पलायन, ऋण संकट र मुद्रा अवमूल्यनजस्ता समस्या भोग्नुपर्नेछ । ब्याजदरमा तीव्र वृद्धिले विकसित देशहरू विशेषगरी अमेरिकामा ठूलो पुँजी प्रवाह हुन थालेको छ भने विकासोन्मुख देशहरूबाट पुँजी बाहिरिने क्रम बढेको छ । आर्थिक विस्तारका क्रममा देशको ऋण बढ्ने गर्छ । विशेषगरी विकासोन्मुख देशहरू तब ‘ऋण पासो’मा फस्न पुग्छन् जब उत्पादकत्व र ऋण सन्तुलनमा रहँदैन । यस्तो परिस्थितिमा विकसित अर्थतन्त्रमा ब्याजदर वृद्धि विकासोन्मुख अर्थतन्त्रका लागि घातकसिद्ध हुन सक्छ । उदाहरणका लागि सन् १९८० को प्रारम्भमा अमेरिकी केन्द्रीय बैंक (फेड)को ब्याजदर वृद्धिले संयुक्त राज्यमा दोहोरो अंकको मुद्रास्फीतिलाई घटायो, तर धेरै देशमा त्यसको नराम्रो असर प¥यो । विशेषगरी ल्याटिन अमेरिकी देशहरूमा ऋण डिफल्ट भयो । बेरोजगारी र गरिबी बढ्यो । जिडिपीमा ठूलो गिरावट आयो । यसैले त्यो अवधिलाई ‘हराएको दशक (लस्ट डिकेट)’ भन्ने गरिन्छ । ल्याटिन अमेरिकी देशहरू सुस्त र असमान पुनरुत्थानबाट गुज्रिएका थिए । अफ्रिकाका ऋणग्रस्त देशहरूले पनि ल्याटिन अमेरिकै नियति भोग्नुप¥यो । आइएमएफका अनुसार हाल लगभग कम आय भएका १५ प्रतिशत देशहरू ऋण संकटमा छन् र अन्य ४५ प्रतिशतले उच्च ऋण जोखिमको सामना गरिरहेका छन् ।

विशेषगरी अमेरिका र युरोपमा बैंकिङ प्रणालीमा थप उथलपुथलको सम्भावनाले आर्थिक गतिविधिमा असर पर्ने जोखिम छ । बैंक अफ अमेरिकाका अर्थशास्त्री डेभिड हौनरका अनुसार वित्तीय अस्थिरताले उदीयमान बजारमा पर्ने मुख्य असर दुई प्रकारका छन् । सकारात्मक असर, वित्तीय अस्थिरताले मुद्रास्फीति र ब्याजदर घटाउन मद्दत गर्न सक्छ । नकारात्मक असरमा उदीयमान देशहरूले बजारमा पहुँच प्राप्त गर्न कठिन हुन्छ ।

कोभिड– १९ महामारी, रुस–युक्रेन द्वन्द्व र अमेरिका र चीनबीचको बढ्दो तनावका कारण कतिपयले संसार डिग्लोबलाइज भइरहेको अनुमान गर्न थालेका छन् । अमेरिकाका दुई ठूला भूराजनीतिक प्रतिद्वन्द्वी चीन र रुस डलरको प्रभुत्वलाई सन्तुलनमा राख्न चाहन्छन् । रुसले रेन्मिन्बीलाई आफ्नो विदेशी विनिमय सञ्चिति, वैदेशिक व्यापार र केही बैंकिङ सेवामा मुख्य मुद्राका रूपमा अपनाएको छ । पश्चिमी प्रतिबन्धको सामना गर्न ऊ चीनतर्फ अग्रसर भएको छ । भर्खरै भारतले रुसलगायत थुप्रै देशसँगको व्यापारमा भारुको भुक्तानी संयन्त्र ल्याउने घोषणा गरेको छ । सन् २०२२ मा विश्वव्यापी विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चितिमा डलरको हिस्सा ५५ प्रतिशत रहेको थियो । यसले वासिङटनलाई अतुलनीय आर्थिक र राजनीतिक शक्ति प्रदान गरेको छ । विश्व डिग्लोबलाइज भइरहेको संकेत देखिए पनि अमेरिकी डलरले लामो समयदेखि विश्वबजारमा महŒवपूर्ण भूमिका खेलिरहेको छ र यो कायम नै रहनेछ ।

घरेलु आर्थिक परिदृश्य : चुनौती र अवसर
नेपाल सरकारले आगामी आर्थिक वर्ष ०८०/८१ मा ६ प्रतिशतको वृद्धि प्रक्षेपण गरेको छ । गत आर्थिक वर्षमा नेपालको वृद्धिदर ५.८४ प्रतिशत थियो । विश्व बैंक र एसियाली विकास बैंक दुवैले सन २०२३ का लागि नेपालको आर्थिक वृद्धिदर ४.१ प्रतिशतमा संशोधन गरेका छन् । नेपालको प्रमुख आर्थिक परिसूचकमा केही सुधार आएको छ । यसले वित्तीय घाटालाई बिस्तारै घटाउँदै लगेको छ । जिडिपीमा कृषिको योगदान एकतिहाइबाट घटेर २२–२३ प्रतिशतमा पुगेको छ भने सेवा क्षेत्रको अर्थतन्त्रमा ६१ प्रतिशत र उद्योगको योगदान १३ प्रतिशत छ । औद्योगिक क्षेत्र सुस्त हुनुको मुख्य कारण निर्माण क्षेत्रको कमजोर वृद्धि नै हो । चालू आर्थिक वर्षको पहिलो त्रैमासमा मुलुकको कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनमा झन्डै सात प्रतिशत योगदान दिने निर्माण क्षेत्र २४ प्रतिशतले ऋणात्मक भएको केन्द्रीय तथ्यांक विभागले जनाएको छ । निर्माण क्षेत्रले विभिन्न समस्या भोगिरहेको छ । निर्माण सामग्रीको मूल्यमा उल्लेखनीय वृद्धि भएको छ ।

मुद्रास्फीति पनि उच्च रहने अनुमान गरिएको छ । मौद्रिक नीतिले मुद्रास्फीति सात प्रतिशतभित्रै सीमित लक्ष्य राखे पनि त्यो लक्ष्यभन्दा माथि नै छ । उपभोक्ता मूल्यस्फीति गत वर्षको ६.२४ प्रतिशतको तुलनामा सन २०२३ को फेब्रुअरीमा ७.८८ प्रतिशत रहेको छ । रुस–युक्रेन युद्धको असर नेपालजस्तो आयातमुखी अर्थतन्त्रमा बढी परेको छ । त्यसैले राष्ट्र बैंकले माग घटाउन ब्याजदर बढायो । बढ्दो ब्याज र घट्दो मागको गुणात्मक असरले बैंकको असुलीमै मार पर्न गयो । नीतिगत निर्णयले अन्योल बढ्नुका साथै व्यापारमा पनि कमी आएको देखिन्छ ।

आयात–निर्यातका साथै समग्र व्यापार घाटा कम भएको छ । चालू आर्थिक वर्षको पहिलो सात महिनामा व्यापार घाटा १८.७ प्रतिशतले घटेको देखिन्छ । आयात प्रतिबन्ध र सुस्त वृद्धिले पहिलो अर्धवार्षिकमा राजस्वमा नकारात्मक योगदान दिएको छ । २०२१/२२ मा लगाइएको आयात प्रतिबन्ध (जुन २०२२/२३ मा हटाइयो) ले चालू खाता घाटा कम गर्न र विदेशी विनिमय सञ्चितिलाई स्थिर राख्न त मद्दत ग¥यो । तर, यस नीतिको अनपेक्षित परिणामस्वरूप वित्तीय राजस्वमा ठूलो गिरावट आयो । २०२२/२३ को पहिलो ६ महिनामा आयात घट्दा वृद्धि सुस्तियो । यसबीच, रेमिट्यान्स आम्दानी २७.५ प्रतिशतले बढेको छ, जसले बाह्य क्षेत्रलाई स्थिर बनाउन मद्दत गरेको छ । पछिल्लो समय नेपालले मासिक एक खर्बभन्दा बढी रेमिट्यान्स भिœयाइरहेको छ । वैदेशिक रोजगारीमा जाने कामदारको संख्या बढेसँगै रेमिट्यान्स बढ्ने अपेक्षा गरिएको छ ।

पर्यटक आगमन पनि कोभिडपूर्वको स्तरमा पुग्न थालेको छ । यस वर्ष निजी क्षेत्रको आम्दानी घटेको र कर्पाेरेट कर पनि घट्दै गएकाले राजस्व बढाउन चुनौतीपूर्ण छ । यस वर्ष आयातबाट राजस्व बढ्ने कुनै संकेत छैन । नेपालको वित्तीय सुशासन निजी र सार्वजनिक दुवै क्षेत्रमा कमजोर भएको छ । देशको व्यापार घाटा बढ्दै गएको अवस्थामा बैंकिङ क्षेत्रको लगानी अनुत्पादक क्षेत्रमा गरिए देशले सोचेजस्तो आर्थिक प्रगति गर्न सक्दैन ।

आर्थिक जटिलता र महामारीका कारण हालै नेपालको सरकारी साधारण खर्च राजस्व आर्जन क्षमताभन्दा छिटो बढेको छ । नेपालले चालू आर्थिक वर्षमा निकै ठूलो राजस्व अभावको सामना गरिरहेको छ । अर्थ मन्त्रालय र महालेखानियन्त्रक कार्यालयका अनुसार चालू आर्थिक वर्षको पहिलो सात महिना (२०२२ को मध्यदेखि २०२३ मार्चसम्म)मा राजस्व परिचालन लक्ष्यको ४० प्रतिशत मात्रै रहेको छ । आव २०१६/१७ मा सार्वजनिक ऋण जिडिपीको २५ प्रतिशत थियो भने २०१९/२० मा उल्लेखनीय सार्वजनिक ऋण वृद्धिका लागि कोभिड महामारीको प्रभाव र त्योसँग जुझ्न अपनाइएका प्रक्रिया जिम्मेवार छन् । ०२०/२१ मा नेपालको ऋण जिडिपी अनुपात ३९ प्रतिशत पुग्यो ।

राजस्व आम्दानी घट्दा नेपाल सरकारलाई ऋण तिर्न र नयाँ ऋण लिन कठिन भएको छ । वैदेशिक सहायता अनुदान घटिरहेको अवस्था छ । आइएमएफले नेपालका लागि विस्तारित ऋण सुविधाअन्तर्गत ३९ करोड ५९ लाख डलर स्वीकृत गरेको थियो । हालैमा आइएमएफको बोर्डले विस्तारित ऋण सुविधालाई औपचारिक रूपमा अनुमोदन गरेको छ । कोभिड– १९ महामारीबाट नेपालको दृढ पुनरुत्थान र दिगो विकासलाई प्रवद्र्धन गर्न विश्व बैंकले १५ करोड डलरको विकास नीति ऋण स्वीकृत गरेको थियो । ब्याजदरमा वृद्धि हुँदै गर्दा बढ्दो ऋणले राष्ट्रको सरकारी बजेटलाई असर गर्छ ।

विदेशी विनिमय सञ्चितिको आधारमा देशको ऋणको अवस्थालाई विश्लेषण गर्नु पनि महŒवपूर्ण हुन्छ । अमेरिकी डलरको तुलनामा नेपाली रुपैयाँ कमजोर हुँदा स्थानीय मुद्रामा नेपालको ऋण दायित्व बढेको छ । अपर्याप्त आन्तरिक स्रोत परिचालन, अत्यधिक वित्तीय घाटा, निर्यात–आयात असन्तुलन, राजस्व र खर्चको अन्तरका कारण वैदेशिक ऋण थप बढेको हो । तसर्थ केही लेखकले दिगो आर्थिक वृद्धि र लगानीलाई हतोत्साहित गर्नुको सट्टा प्रोत्साहन गर्ने सम्भावना रहेसम्म घाटा वित्तपोषणलाई ध्यानमा राख्नुहुँदैन भनी तर्क गर्छन् । यसबाहेक, ऋण चुक्ता गर्ने क्षमतामा कुनै सुधार आउन सकेको छैन । कुल सार्वजनिक ऋणराशि र ब्याजमा वृद्धि भएको छ । अमेरिकी डलरको तुलनामा नेपाली रुपैयाँको अवमूल्यनले वैदेशिक ऋण महँगो साबित हुनेछ ।

नेपालले विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति घट्न नदिन विलासिताका सामानको आयातमा प्रतिबन्ध लगाउनेजस्ता विभिन्न उपाय पनि अपनायो । विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति बढेपछि प्रतिबन्ध हटाएको छ । अमेरिकी डलरको सट्टा भारत–बंगलादेशको व्यापारमा भारतीय रुपैयाँको प्रयोग परीक्षणको चरणमा छ । केही विषयमा द्विपक्षीय निर्णय गरेपछि मात्रै दुवै देशमा रुपैयाँको कारोबार सुरु होला । भारत नेपालको ठूलो व्यापारिक साझेदार हो र यो नीतिबाट नेपालले पनि ठूलो राहत पाउनेछ । यसले नेपाली मुद्राको अवमूल्यन कम बनाउन मद्दत गर्न सक्छ ।

निराशाजनक पक्ष के भने अर्थ मन्त्रालयले जारी गरेको विवरणअनुसार पछिल्लो सात महिनामा ८५ अर्ब ६० करोडभन्दा बढी बजेट सिद्धान्तविपरीत परिचालन भएको छ । राष्ट्रको सार्वजनिक ऋण बढ्ने क्रममा रहेको अवस्थामा सिद्धान्तविपरीत बजेट परिचालन गर्नु कत्ति जायज हुन्छ ? यसको जवाफ देश विकास गर्छु भनेर चुनिई आएका जिम्मेवार जनप्रतिनिधिले संसद्बाट जनतालाई पारदर्शी र जवाफदेही भएर अवगत गराउनुपर्छ ।

नेपालको प्रत्यक्ष वैदेशिक लगानी (एफडिआई) जिडिपीको ०.५ प्रतिशत छ, जुन दक्षिण एसियामा सबैभन्दा कम हो । एफडिआई थ्रेसहोल्ड एनपिआर दुई करोडमा घटाउँदा एफडिआईको प्रवाहमा थप कमी आउनेछ । पुँजी प्रवाहमा प्रतिबन्धले जिडिपीमा नकारात्मक प्रभाव पार्न सक्छ । सरकारले लामो समयदेखि थाती रहेको एफडिआईको सुधार गर्नुपर्छ । नियामक स्वीकृति प्रक्रियालाई सरल बनाउदाँ विदेशी मुद्रा प्रवाह बढ्नेछ । पुँजी र प्रविधिको आप्रवाहलाई प्रोत्साहित गर्नेछ ।

मौद्रिक नीतिले बैंकिङ र निजी क्षेत्रलाई वर्तमान वातावरणमा ऋण प्रयोग गर्दा बढी सावधानी र जवाफदेहिता अपनाउन निर्देशन दिनुपर्छ । तीन दशकसम्म कर्जा वृद्धि उच्च भए पनि आर्थिक वृद्धिदर ४.४ प्रतिशत मात्रै रह्यो । यसले हाम्रो कर्जा वृद्धि नीतिले आर्थिक वृद्धिमा सकारात्मक प्रभाव पार्न नसकेको देखाउँछ । आगामी दशकमा आर्थिक वृद्धिलाई प्रत्यक्ष रूपमा सहयोग गर्ने क्षेत्रमा ऋण प्रवाह केन्द्रित हुनुपर्छ । कर्जाको वृद्धि पनि निक्षेप वृद्धिसँग मिल्दो हुनुपर्छ । बैंकको चर्काे ब्याजविरुद्ध आन्दोलन चल्न थालेको छ र मिटरब्याजपीडित काठमाडौंमै आएर धर्ना दिने स्थिति राम्रो संकेत होइन ।

आइएमएफले नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकले दिएको कर्जाको गुणस्तर शंकास्पद भएकाले देशका केही ठूला वाणिज्य बैंकलाई अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय लेखापरीक्षण संस्थाबाट लेखापरीक्षण गराउन आग्रह गरेको छ । कागजमा नेपालका बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थाको निष्क्रिय कर्जा (एनपिएल) अनुपात सहज छ । पुस मसान्तसम्ममा नेपाली बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थाको औसत निष्क्रिय कर्जा अनुपात २.७३ प्रतिशत मात्र रहेको केन्द्रीय बैंकले जनाएको छ । क, ख र ग वर्गका बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थामध्ये वित्त कम्पनीको खराब कर्जा (७.८२ प्रतिशत) अनुपात सबैभन्दा धेरै रहेको छ । वाणिज्य बैंक र विकास बैंकको खराब कर्जा अनुपात क्रमशः २.४९ र २.८२ प्रतिशत रहेको छ । आइएमएफले बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थाको वित्तीय स्वास्थ्यको वास्तविक तस्बिर जाँच्न गरेको पहल एकदम ठीक हो ।

नेपाल एउटा यस्तो राष्ट्र हो, जसलाई संरचनात्मक परिवर्तनको नितान्त आवश्यकता छ । समस्या मौलिक भएकाले संरचनात्मक सुधार नै छोटो र दीर्घकालीन जवाफ खोज्ने एक मात्र उपाय हो । भुक्तानी सन्तुलन कायम गरी बाह्य क्षेत्रमाथिको दबाब कम गर्न ऋण विस्तार र क्षेत्रगत वितरणको व्यवस्थापन, अत्यधिक आयात घटाउने र औपचारिक माध्यमबाट रेमिट्यान्स आप्रवाहमा सुधार गर्न आवश्यक छ । नयाँ जनगणनाअनुसार १५ देखि ५९ वर्षसम्मको सक्रिय उमेर समूह बढेको छ जुन कुल जनसंख्याको ६१.९६ प्रतिशत रहेको छ । जनसांख्यिक लाभांश पूर्ण रूपमा प्राप्त गर्न नेपाली युवाको सीपमा लगानी आवश्यक छ । हामीले नेपालको श्रमशक्तिलाई कृषि र गैरकृषि क्षेत्रबीच सन्तुलन कायम गर्दै उत्पादनशील क्षेत्रमा कसरी परिचालन गर्ने ? यो अहिलेको ज्वलन्त प्रश्न हो । विशेषगरी आर्थिक रूपमा सक्रिय जनसंख्यालाई रोजगारीको ग्यारेन्टी सरकारहरूको मूल मन्त्र हुनुपर्छ । रोजगारीको ग्यारेन्टी भनेको अर्थतन्त्रको उत्पादनशील क्षेत्रमा रोजगारी प्रवद्र्धन गर्न सरकारले अपनाउन सक्ने संरचनात्मक स्थिरता दिने वित्तीय नीति हो । नेपाली श्रम बजारले धेरै वर्षदेखि उच्च अनैच्छिक बेरोजगारी सामना गरिरहेको छ, जसलाई कोभिड– १९ महामारीले निस्सन्देह बढाएको छ ।

सरकारले यो वर्ष कर छली रोक्न र आफ्नो राजस्वको आधारलाई फराकिलो बनाउन संघर्ष गर्नुपर्नेछ  । अपेक्षितभन्दा उच्च मुद्रास्फीतिले घरायसी क्रयशक्ति घटाउने र आर्थिक वृद्धि घट्ने अनुमान गरिएको छ । नयाँ अर्थमन्त्रीले वित्तीय र मौद्रिक नीतिलाई ‘सिंक्रोनाइज’ गर्दै उत्पादनशील क्षेत्रमा लगानी बढाउन तरलता अभावलाई कम गर्नुपर्छ । व्यापार र प्रत्यक्ष वैदेशिक लगानीलाई प्रोत्साहन गर्ने वातावरण बनाउनुपर्छ । वित्तीय क्षेत्रको वृद्धि, मानव पुँजी निर्माण र सुशासन अभिवृद्धिमार्फत विकासको सम्भावना बढाउनुपर्छ ।

राष्ट्रले ऋण लिएको रकम उत्पादनशील क्षेत्रमा उपयोग गरी सरकारको ऋण न्यूनीकरणमा सहयोग गर्ने कार्यक्रम बनाउनुपर्छ । नेपालले सन् २०२६ मा एलडिसी समूहबाट बाहिरिने योजना बनाएकाले ऋण चुक्ता गर्न उत्पादक क्षेत्रमा लगानी गरेर दिगो अर्थतन्त्र निर्माण गर्नुपर्छ । यसका लागि लामो अवधि र न्यून ब्याजदरका ऋणबाट फाइदा उठाउनुपर्छ ।

– SANTOSH Sharma Poudel

The column originally appeared in The Diplomat on 27 April 2023. Please read the original article here.

Nepal is hosting the ACC (Asian Cricket Council) Premier Cup, the winner of which will qualify to participate in the Asia Cup, the cricket tournament in which Asia’s top six teams will contend for the title. Nepal is only two wins away from winning the ACC Cup. If it wins, it will play alongside India and Pakistan in the Asia Cup in September.

This marks a remarkable reversal in Nepal’s nascent cricketing fortunes. Just months ago, it was on the verge of losing its ODI (One Day International) status.

Unlike other South Asian countries, Nepal is not a cricketing power. But it hopes to be there in the coming years.

Cricket made its way to Nepal via the young Ranas, who came from Nepal’s ruling family and had gone to England and India (then a British colony) for higher education in the 1920s. The game was limited to the elites.

Cricket became popular among the masses only in the 1990s. Nepal became an associate member of the International Cricket Council (ICC), which governs global cricket, in 1996. Since then, cricket has captured the imagination of Nepali youth and has become the most popular sport in the country. Its popularity off-field has matched Nepal’s progress in the game. Nepal has scaled up the tiers of cricket and appeared in an ICC global event at the 2014 ICC World Twenty20, the game’s shortest format.

It gained ODI status in 2018. Currently, the ICC ranks Nepal 14th and 16th in the ODI and Twenty20 (T20) formats of the games, respectively.

Cricket has provided rare national unity and pride among Nepalis at home and abroad. The Nepali team’s performances have sparked hope and joy among Nepalis with little else to cheer for.

In a way, Nepali cricket reflects the challenges that the country faces.

First, there is limited infrastructure. Nepal had only two cricketing grounds where international matches were played for a long time. It has recently added a third ground. All three, however, can hardly be called modern stadiums by any standards.

Second, instability and mismanagement run deep. Monty Desai, the current national coach, is the seventh since 2018. The politicization of the Cricket Association of Nepal (CAN), the governing body for all cricket in the country, led to Nepal’s suspension in 2016 for breach of “ICC regulations which prohibit government interference and require free and fair elections.” Nepal was reinstated in 2019. Similarly, Nepal’s rollout of a T20 league, which held the inaugural tournament in December 2022-January 2023, was poorly organized. Some foreign players left mid-tournament over clashes with organizers, while other matches were affected by teams not paying the players’ salaries on time.

Third, corruption remains rife. The inaugural T20 tournament was a hotbed for spot-fixing, a practice of bribing players for specific actions during specific times to influence the betting results. A Central Investigation Bureau investigation unearthed that franchise owners and the Seven3Sports, an Indian company that was the commercial and strategic partner of the league, were engaged in the corrupt practice. Seven3Sports’ cofounder was the mastermind. Two former cricketers were arrested on a charge of supporting the fixers. It felt as if the whole league was organized to help corrupt betting practices.

Fourth, Nepal’s captain, Sandip Lamichhane, was accused of raping a minor and suspended from all cricketing activities following an arrest warrant issued against him in September 2022. Lamichhane, the most high-profile Nepali cricket player, has played in domestic leagues worldwide, including the Indian Premier League (IPL). Following the high court’s decision to grant him conditional bail, the CAN overturned his suspension. Nepali youth marched in protest against allowing an accused rapist on the team. Even the Scottish players refused to shake hands with Lamichhane before a match between the two nations in February.

Despite the challenges, the team has competed well on the field. The cricket-crazy Nepali crowd has provided excellent support. Spectators have flocked to matches, whether in Nepal or abroad, adorned with national flags, making deafening noise of support. Cricket is no longer just a sport in Nepal but a religion.

The cricket team’s challenges mirror Nepal’s struggles and the Nepali people’s hope, regardless of the conditions. Cricket fans have catapulted Nepali cricketers to the status of rock stars. The sport has brought the country together and given something to Nepalis to celebrate.

Even though the British colonizers left South Asia more than seven decades ago, their influence can be fully felt in cricket. Nepal’s rise makes it the sixth country in South Asia among the top 16 globally ranked cricket-playing countries.

Afghanistan’s ascent to the top was even steeper and quicker. In a 2010 meeting with then-Afghan President Hamid Karzai, former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton cited Afghan cricket as the model for Afghanistan to follow. “If we [the U.S. and Afghanistan] are searching for a model to meet international challenges with skill, dedication, and teamwork, we need only look to the Afghan national cricket team,” she said. In 2017, Afghanistan became a full member of the ICC, although that status is now imperiled by the Taliban regime’s refusal to allow women to play the sport.

Along with the economic center of gravity shifting to Asia, the center of global cricket has shifted to South Asia, particularly India. India generates around 90 percent of cricket’s global revenues. Add the mad love for cricket in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and Nepal — the region is a cricketing behemoth.

While some critics in the West are not comfortable with the dominance of cricket by a non-White country, India has played a vital role in developing the game in the region. Nepal’s progress opens up further opportunities and the need for deeper cricketing cooperation in the region, especially in India. It would greatly support the development of Nepali cricket if India allowed some Nepali cricketers to participate in their domestic trophies. It would give Nepali cricketers greater exposure and a chance to compete with and learn from more skilled players. In addition, Nepal and India need to cooperate more closely to control corruption in the game.

– DHIROJ KOIRALA, TETSUSHI SONOBE, DIL RAHUT

This commentary originally appeared in the South China Morning Post on 27 April 2023. Read the original commentary here.

The Group of Seven (G7) leaders are set to meet in Hiroshima next month to contest daunting global challenges. The host city was hit by an atomic bomb almost 78 years ago, resulting in a historical tragedy. Those who visit the city will see a message to humanity etched on the Hiroshima Memorial Cenotaph: “Let all the souls here rest in peace, for we shall not repeat the evil.”

Today, we face another human-induced threat in climate change. As the world seeks to prevent the full-scale damage climate change is capable of, it seeks the kind of determination Hiroshima showed while rebuilding itself into a resilient, prosperous city. That is why it is vital to promote international cooperation, and G7 leaders must come to an agreement to scale up efforts on climate action.

The G7 bears the responsibility for leading efforts to reduce global carbon dioxide emissions as developed Western countries have emitted most of the world’s greenhouse gases since the start of the Industrial Revolution. We hope the G7 leaders can focus on having meaningful discourse on climate change, reaffirm their prior climate commitments and allow for the emergence of new commitments to help escape another human catastrophe.

The G7 also needs to accept that its members alone cannot limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Recent scientific estimates show that doing so would require emissions reductions of around 43 per cent by 2030, relative to 2019 levels.

Therefore, the group needs to coordinate with developing countries. However, the reality is that geopolitical tensions between China and the United States, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have hampered global emission-reduction efforts. Last year’s G7 summit in Germany included a pledge that the war would not hinder climate and biodiversity goals, and we hope the group proposes bold, pragmatic and tangible initiatives to achieve that.

Rising emissions from developing countries such as China and India are also complicating climate negotiations. It is imperative the G7 understands that these countries have their own growth concerns around emissions reductions. However, the group can encourage initiatives that promote climate-smart growth in developing countries. Bringing these initiatives to life will require the G7 and emerging economies to enhance communication and cooperation on climate finance, and research and development.

The G7 must also support low-income and vulnerable countries. It should propose establishing climate funds in coordination with major developing countries with high emissions to support climate initiatives in low-income economies. The Group of 20 meetings are an appropriate forum for expanding such cooperation.

In addition, the group should review the progress of its commitment to deliver US$100 billion per year through to 2025, made at the UN climate change conference in Copenhagen in 2009. Unfortunately, it has yet to fulfil this commitment on climate financing.

The G7 must take substantive steps to live up to this pledge and extend it well beyond 2025. It should also encourage countries – some of which are major emitters and close political allies – to align their nationally determined contribution with the 1.5-degree pathway if they have not yet done so.

G7 countries have agreed to uphold the Glasgow Climate Pact and phase down the use of coal power and inefficient subsidies for fossil fuels, hoping to achieve this by 2030 at the latest. They have committed to decarbonise their electricity sectors by 2035 and highly decarbonise road transport sectors by 2030. These commitments are crucial for achieving carbon neutrality, so the G7 should roll out further details of these plans and come up with ways to track progress on previous commitments.

Despite some shortcomings and a failure to deliver on its commitments, the G7’s vision for emissions reductions and commitment to decarbonisation are valuable and should not be forgotten. As a result, the team at the Asian Development Bank Institute is working to develop a dashboard to keep track of those visions and commitments.

Similarly, to support G7 commitments to fight climate change, the ADB has initiatives such as the Energy Transition Mechanism, a scalable, blended-finance instrument to step up the retirement of coal-fired power plants in the Asia-Pacific region. Towards that end, the ADB has joined the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet to pledge US$35 million to help improve energy access and boost the green energy transition in South and Southeast Asia.

In October 2021, the ADB committed to provide US$100 billion in cumulative climate financing from its own resources to its developing member countries from 2019 to 2030. Multilateral agencies such as the ADB can support the G7 by bringing in new climate programmes and carrying out existing ones on climate finance in emerging economies.

The ADB is committed to working with the G7 and other partners to support climate-resilient growth and recovery in the Asia-Pacific region. Strong commitment, broader cooperation and concerted efforts at every level possible are the only way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and ensure we do not “repeat the evil” – an important message that Hiroshima continues to provide.

– SAMJHANA Karki

The opinion piece originally appeared in the April 2023 Issue of New Business Age Magazine. Please read the original article here.

The probability of disasters occurring worldwide is increasing. The Annual Weather, Climate, and Catastrophe Insight Report 2023 revealed that natural catastrophes alone resulted in $313 billion in global economic losses. According to the Global Risks Report 2023, natural disasters and extreme weather events rank second in the top ten risks over the next two years. Whether caused by natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides, hurricanes, and floods, or non-natural hazards such as industrial accidents, terrorist attacks, civil wars, and pandemics, disasters can have significant social, economic, and political consequences. The impacts of these events can have far-reaching and cascading effects on governance, power dynamics, and public policy.

The recent earthquake in Turkey and Syria has highlighted the impact of disasters on a country’s socio-economic status. According to the Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation Report 2023 published by the World Bank, the two major earthquakes on February 6 caused direct physical damages estimated at $34.2 billion for Turkey, which accounts for four percent of the country’s 2021 GDP. Syria also experienced damages worth $5.1 billion.

South Asia has been experiencing a series of disasters that have had a significant impact on the region’s development. Unfortunately, poverty, inadequate infrastructure, and ineffective governance have worsened the consequences of these disasters. One major example of their devastating impact can be seen in Bangladesh, where around 7.2 million people were affected by flooding in June 2022. Similarly, Pakistan experienced historic floods the same year, resulting in damages and economic losses exceeding $30 billion.

Nepal is not immune to the consequences of disasters. It is among the 20 most multi-hazard-prone countries in the world. In 2015, the Gorkha earthquake and subsequent aftershocks caused the deaths of approximately 9,000 people and injured around 22,000. The disaster also resulted in loss and damage estimated at $7 billion, equivalent to one-third of Nepal’s GDP. Additionally, severe flooding in August 2017 affected 1.7 million people and caused loss and damage of $585 million, equivalent to three percent of Nepal’s GDP. Despite having a small population of 30 million, Nepal has faced significant impacts from disasters, resulting in high costs in terms of human life and economic damages.

Disasters have far-reaching consequences, affecting not only the physical environment but also the social and economic fabric of society. The loss of life, injuries, and displacement can cause significant trauma and mental health issues for individuals and communities. Disasters also disrupt businesses, leading to lost revenue and decreased productivity. This can result in reduced economic activity, job losses, and a decline in living standards. Additionally, disasters can have a significant impact on the country’s economy, leading to decreased agricultural output and slowed tourism activities.

The physical damage to infrastructure can also make it difficult for people to access essential services. For example, the floods and landslides of 2021 caused damage to physical infrastructure worth $9.9 million in Nepal, making it challenging for people to access critical services such as water supply and electricity. Furthermore, investment in disaster relief efforts, including search and rescue operations, emergency shelters, and reconstruction and rehabilitation, increases government spending. This can have implications for the country’s budget and development priorities.

Disasters can also worsen existing social inequalities, leading to unequal access to relief and rehabilitation measures. Individuals from so-called higher castes or with political affiliations may be more likely to receive humanitarian aid than the actual needy and affected population. This can lead to a breakdown in social order, and criminal activities may increase.

In addition, disasters disrupt the health sector, causing difficulties in accessing medical care, particularly for individuals with pre-existing health conditions. This leads to a significant impact on health outcomes, resulting in increased morbidity and mortality rates. Moreover, climate-induced disasters often force people to evacuate their homes and seek refuge in evacuation centres or camps. The overpopulation in these camps results in reduced access to safe water and sanitation facilities, increasing the risk of waterborne diseases. Therefore, the socio-economic impacts of disasters make people more vulnerable to future disasters.

Reducing Nepal’s vulnerability to disasters is a complex issue that requires a multi-faceted approach. The government has taken several steps to minimise the impact of disasters, including adopting the National Policy and Strategic Action Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (2018-2030), enacting the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act, establishing various Early Warning Systems, launching the BIPAD portal, creating the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA), providing emergency response training to communities, and offering disaster response training. However, the implementation of these initiatives has been challenging due to insufficient coordination, resources, and capacity.

One of the ways forward to reduce the impact of disasters is increasing awareness among students. The Nepali curriculum and textbooks have not been fully disaster sensitive until now. Incorporating disaster risk reduction (DRR) education into the school curriculum is essential to building a more resilient society. DRR education enhances people’s awareness and knowledge about disasters and how to mitigate the hazards and consequences of such disasters. Schools can develop dedicated modules on DRR, Emergency Preparedness, and Crisis Management Plan (EPCMP). Games, simulations, and other activities (use of case studies and real-life disaster examples) can be done to illustrate concepts and principles related to DRR. This could help build our future generation to cope with the risks and impacts of disasters. Nepal can learn from Japan about incorporating DRR into the school curriculum.

Overall, reducing the impact of disasters requires a comprehensive approach that involves developing a disaster preparedness plan, conducting risk assessments, strengthening early warning systems, and establishing emergency response teams. Inclusive policies in DRR can help reduce the impact of disasters and promote inclusive and sustainable development. Collaboration between governments, the private sector, and educational and research institutes is crucial for disaster resilience. Additionally, prioritising community awareness is essential. Moreover, government and local representatives can play a crucial role in reducing disaster risk by promoting preparedness, coordinating responses, and advocating for policies and programs that support resilience.

– SANTOSH Sharma Poudel

The column originally appeared in The Diplomat on 18 April 2023. Please read the original article here.

Kathmandu has been abuzz with discussion about Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s visit to India. Initially planned for April, the visit has been postponed now to early May.

Since his swearing-in as Nepal’s prime minister in late December of last year, Dahal has publicly stated his interest in making New Delhi his first foreign destination. He has repeated this intention time and again.

Nepal’s prime ministers have traditionally chosen New Delhi for their first foreign trip. Dahal was the last prime minister to buck the trend when he assumed the role of prime minister for the first time in 2008. Then, he visited Beijing to attend the Olympics closing ceremony, drawing criticism at home and in New Delhi for flying first to Nepal’s northern neighbor, China.

India is so central in Nepal’s diplomacy and domestic politics that the first visit of a Nepali prime minister to New Delhi is assumed.

While newly appointed Nepali prime ministers often rush to visit India, New Delhi has not always shown similar urgency to meet them. Dahal’s immediate predecessor, former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, had to wait nine months before he could visit India. Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, who preceded Deuba, got to visit the Indian capital within two months after he became the premier. During his last tenure as prime minister (2016-17) Dahal got to visit New Delhi four months after he took over the reins.

India rushed to welcome Oli in 2018 because it wanted to rebuild ties with Kathmandu that had been severely strained by its blockade of landlocked Nepal in 2015. It also saw Oli as a powerful leader, potentially at the helm of the Nepali government for five years. New Delhi was proactive in seeking to ensure that Oli would not lean to Beijing as he did during his previous tenure (2015-16). Besides, the Indian government wanted to project successful diplomacy in its neighborhood.

What explains the delay in Dahal’s visit to New Delhi?

First, since becoming prime minister Dahal has spent his entire energy managing and surviving domestic politics. In the last four months, he has changed coalition partners and is yet to form a government fully. After the Oli-led Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) withdrew from the government, Dahal was in charge of 16 ministerial portfolios, including foreign affairs. He finally appointed N.P. Saud of the Nepali Congress (NC) as the foreign minister on April 16. It is not a surprise then that without a lieutenant on his side, Dahal’s diplomatic plans suffered. The cabinet expansion is expected to be complete soon, so he can finally glance beyond domestic politics.

Second, Dahal’s grip over power appears tenuous. His party, the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-MC) came in a distant third in the 2022 general elections, winning a mere 11 percent of the votes. While he was able to play on the insecurities of Deuba and Oli to propel himself to the prime minister’s post, his alliance with the Oli-led CPN-UML was a partnership of strange bedfellows, one that was doomed to fail given their past tumultuous relations and the fact that Dahal had a pre-poll alliance with the Deuba-led NC. With the NC actively looking to wedge them apart, the coalition soon fell. New Delhi might have calculated that there was little to gain from the visit of a flailing prime minister. India was therefore not in a hurry to meet Dahal.

Finally, five months after the general elections, Nepali politics look somewhat settled by Nepali standards. Hence, diplomacy, and the trip to New Delhi, is back among the priorities for the Dahal government.

Several outstanding issues in India-Nepal relations require immediate attention.

Among the primary concerns for Nepal is the connectivity: land, air, and power. The detailed project report for the 136-km-long Raxaul-Kathmandu broad-gauge railway is complete. India and Nepal will be holding a meeting of the joint working group on the railway project this week and expect to sign an agreement on the construction and funding modality during Dahal’s upcoming visit.

Nepal has been seeking Indian permission for air routes to efficiently operate the Gautam Buddha International Airport (GBIA) and Pokhara International Airport (both of which, incidentally, were built by Chinese firms). Nepal has requested India to provide three additional entry routes and an agreement on near-border operation for the GBIA to make international flights to the newly built airports economically feasible. Dahal would like to secure agreements for at least two entry points.

The two countries signed a Joint Vision Statement on Power Sector Cooperation during Deuba’s visit to New Delhi in 2022. Cross-border power transmission infrastructure and bi-directional power trade based on market demand are core components of the agreement. Based on it, India has permitted Nepal to export up to 364 MW of hydroelectricity. Nepal seeks to expand the scope and depth of the agreement. It seeks further Indian investment in hydroelectricity, permission for more energy exports to India, and Indian cooperation for exporting hydroelectricity produced in Nepal to Bangladesh via India.

The two neighbors had a fallout over the Agnipath scheme introduced last year. Under the scheme, the Indian Army recruits young soldiers (Agniveers) for four years, after which three in four Agniveers will retire from the Army with a $15,000 severance package. This goes against the 1947 tripartite agreement Nepal signed with India and the United Kingdom, which requires India and the U.K. to provide pensions to the Gurkha soldiers recruited from Nepal. As a result of the spat with India on the matter, India’s recruitment of Gurkhas from Nepal has been postponed since last year. Nepal would seek an amicable solution during the visit.

Besides these concerns, there are other stock issues, such as the territorial dispute along Nepal’s western border with India, border management, and a host of other economic issues to be dealt with. On top of that, the Dahal government will have to allay New Delhi’s apprehensions over Nepal’s increased engagement of Beijing and Washington. It will have to assure New Delhi that these engagements will not come at the cost of legitimate Indian interests in Nepal. These issues make Dahal’s visit to New Delhi in May critical.

Reports say that the visit dates have been finalized but will only be disclosed once some agendas get a concrete shape. Sherpas from both countries are working on the draft of the final agreement to be signed in New Delhi.

Dahal has shown his Machiavellian traits to become the premier. We will find out soon if he is any good at diplomacy.

– NISCHAL DHUNGEL

The opinion piece originally appeared in The Kathmandu Post on 13 April 2023. Please read the original article here.

The recently published Nepal Population and Housing Census 2021 shows an alarming trend: The population of children is decreasing, and the dependent population over 60 is increasing. In 10 years, the population under 14 dropped from 34.91 to 27.83 percent while the population over 60 rose from 8.13 to 10.21 percent. As the average life expectancy of citizens grows, the age imbalance in the population increases the state’s financial responsibility, primarily social protection, in future.

The window of opportunity for Nepal to take advantage of the demographic window is pretty small. To fully realise the demographic dividend, it is necessary to increase the domestic job environment and investment in the skills of Nepali youth. The government has two options with regard to job creation: Making the Prime Minister Employment Guarantee Programme more effective or creating a favourable environment for the private sector to create better jobs.

Job guarantee

On the one hand, Nepal’s share of economically active people working in the agriculture sector is decreasing due to increasing attractiveness in the service and industry sectors (according to the 2021 census, 57.3 percent of the population depends on agriculture). On the other hand, the share of the economically inactive population is found to be students, as well as those engaged in household work and family care, old age people, and persons with disabilities, etc. So the question is: How do we leverage Nepal’s labour force by employing them in productive sectors, striking a balance between the agriculture and non-agriculture sector?

In this regard, job guarantee is one of the structural stabiliser fiscal policies that the government can undertake to promote employment. With a basic wage and benefits package for anyone, especially the economically active population willing to work, a job guarantee should be the mantra of the government. The Nepali labour market has seen high involuntary unemployment rates for several years, and the Covid-19 pandemic has further aggravated it. A targeted job guarantee programme can be an effective and equitable policy for achieving full employment and reducing poverty and income inequality.

The government should work in partnership with companies in the private sector to implement creative employment interventions, such as skill development and job placement, that raise wages for workers and boost productivity at businesses in high-growth industries. While creating jobs, the government must check if employers adhere to employee welfare, labour rights, workplace safety, and social protection regulations. Building a solid base for employment opportunities helps the government generate revenue in the form of taxes.

Nepal is currently working with the World Bank to create an Integrated Social Registry, which can act as a platform to link social protection programmes and information systems and address several other issues, including those related to the front end (service delivery) and back end (information system). Touting social protection programmes looks politically appealing, but it is financially challenging. Promoting job guarantee would reduce the impact on the public budget, and employing the job guarantee workers on projects that encourage domestic production could minimise the trade balance.

Existing laws

Nepal’s social protection system comprises contributory social insurance for formal sector workers, non-contributory social assistance, and employment initiatives. Significant legislative reforms, such as the Contribution-based Social Security Act, Labour Act 2017 and the Civil Service Act (Third Amendment 2014), have been enacted to strengthen the country’s social protection system. The primary contributory social insurance programmes for formal private sector workers are the Social Security Fund (SSF) and the Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF) for public sector employees. The non-contributory side of the system is intended to benefit “the most vulnerable sectors of the population.” The four programmes, namely, medical, health and maternity protection, dependents protection, accident and disability protection, and old age protection, were also introduced. The social protection coverage rate is modest, with pensions having the highest coverage rate. Two recent guidelines, one pertaining to migrant workers and the other to those employed in the informal sector and who are self-employed, on expanding social security safety nets are a step in the right direction.

The gradual expansion of social security programmes over the years is a positive step towards ensuring social security and protection for the people. However, their effectiveness has been hindered by insufficient human resources, planning, and coordination. Human Rights Watch has pointed out that Nepal’s social protection system is inadequate in protecting children from poverty and perpetuates inequalities between formal and informal workers. The targeted programmes are often too narrow in scope, while the selection processes can be expensive, inaccurate, and susceptible to corruption. Additionally, many eligible individuals may face difficulty applying or choose not to apply due to the associated stigma. For example, social institutions and welfare policies may consciously or unconsciously stigmatise impoverished children, reinforcing their sense of failure and shame. This is especially so in cases where poverty is attributed to individual shortcomings rather than structural factors. Universal child benefits are more likely to foster social cohesion. They are cognisance recipients as rights holders entitled to support rather than merely beneficiaries, which can affect their civic engagement and the government’s accountability.

Past experiences

The Karnali Employment Programme (KEP) was designed similarly to the Prime Minister Employment Guarantee Programme currently implemented in Nepal, as it involved the creation of employment through infrastructure projects at the local level, resulting in the construction of physical assets. The KEP was marketed under the slogan “one family, one job” (Ek ghar, ek rojgar) and aimed to provide 100 days of employment to each participating household, specifically targeting households without any employed members. The programme provided a specified number of work days to participating households every year rather than a limited period of employment on a one-time basis.

Although KEP faced budgetary and operational constraints at the local level, which hindered its effectiveness in providing employment to all eligible households and compromised its performance as an employment guarantee scheme, these challenges should not be taken to mean that similar initiatives cannot be developed in Nepal. It is important to note that KEP was designed to address the historical underdevelopment of the Karnali region rather than to serve as a blueprint for a nationwide scheme in the future. Just like in Bangladesh, the government can prioritise certain sectors like the garment industry to create a favourable environment for the private sector or strengthen government-led employment programmes to create more jobs.

Most social protection is linked to formal employment. This social protection system exacerbates inequality since informal sector workers are likely to be poor due to low wages and unpredictable employment. Low minimum wages and good job opportunities in Nepal have led to large-scale out-migration. Hence, creating a favourable environment for the private sector to generate more work opportunities or strengthen government-led employment programmes is important. Domestic employment aids the government’s financial responsibility to support the social security system in Nepal.

– SHASTA KANSAKAR

The opinion piece originally appeared in the March 2023 Issue of New Business Age Magazine. Please read the original article here.

On January 10, 2023, Kathmandu Metropolitan City (KMC) announced that it would be illegal to conduct informal businesses, such as hawking and vending, on the streets of Kathmandu. KMC will now be able to seize products from street vendors if caught. The decision came after years of conflict between KMC and street vendors, with the city attempting to remove street vendors while workers resisted. Under former KMC Mayor Bidya Sundar Shakya, street vending was restricted in inner city areas, including Indrawchowk, New Road, and Sundhara, and over 100 police officers were involved in detaining several vendors. Shakya’s successor, Balendra Shah, has continued these restrictions more strictly since his election in May 2022, with KMC aiming to clear city pavements and regularly dispatching metropolis police who seize or destroy goods and intimidate street workers. Their treatment of street vendors has ranged from hostility to brutality.

To provide further context, Balendra Shah has a civil engineering background and a capitalist vision for development, prioritising wider roads and bigger buildings. The ban on street vending aims to clear the pavements and widen the roads for pedestrians, citing sustainable urban management. However, this short-sighted approach, although the intention may be good, harms working-class individuals, especially women and those from low-income families. Over 20,000 street vendors now face loss of employment and increased risk of poverty. Even though street businesses contribute to the economy, providing affordable goods, and being integral to the urban landscape, they have been shunned for decades. In contrast, countries like Thailand and India have enacted laws to manage traffic and protect street vendors simultaneously. The KMC should follow suit by drawing on policies from these countries to balance the needs of street vendors and pedestrians.

The Lore of Street Vending
The vibrant city life of old Kathmandu, characterised by street vendors selling fruits and vegetables and farmers carrying their kharpans – a pair of baskets slung on a pole and carried across the shoulders; has been immortalised in Newa folklore, including the story of ‘Dhon Cholecha.’ Street vending is an age-old profession that has faced prejudice for generations. However, street vendors contribute to the economy of cities, provide essential goods to locals, and offer accessible trade opportunities for working-class individuals.

Historically, street vendors have faced negative perceptions and prejudices. For example, in 1933, the city council of Amsterdam restricted street vendors after years of disdain towards them. Street traders were viewed as unhygienic people who distorted the aesthetics of the city. They were accused of creating unfair competition for formal businesses. These vendors, often from poor and marginalised groups, however, added value to Amsterdam by providing affordable goods but were boycotted from joining guilds with other formal businesses. This stigma against street vendors was also prevalent in other parts of the world, as Edward Said, the author of Orientalism, famously critiqued Westerners who travelled to the Middle East in the 1800s and viewed vendors selling goods as barbaric and uncivilised.

Despite the prevalent contempt towards street vending globally, it is undeniably core to urban life. Vending provides jobs for working-class individuals, affordable goods to locals and economic benefits to the state. Firstly, the informal sector is characterised by the ease of entry into the trade and the small-scale nature of the business where skills from formal settings are not a requirement. Naturally, this becomes accessible for many, especially if one lacks formal education and does not have a lot of seed capital. As for the locals, they can receive affordable and fresh goods from street vendors. Such convenience is often viewed as a perk of city life. Furthermore, people engaging in the profession generate a sizable income as well. Bagmati Province alone makes an annual average profit per engaged person of Rs 103,305 from informal sectors. This profit recirculates in the economy when vendors buy supplies from the market. Hence, indefinitely banning street traders negatively affects several stakeholders.

The Implications
The ban primarily affects vendors who are often daily wage earners. The KMC has not proposed any alternative plans to provide employment for the workers following the ban. Over 20,000 individuals, especially women involved in the trade, have been impacted. Vendors either have to operate in fear or are rendered unemployed for the time being. Some of their testimonies are well-documented by major publications. Moreover, 90.5% of the female workforce in Nepal are engaged in informal sectors, compared to 81.1% of working men, so they are affected disproportionately.

When it comes to employability in the formal sector, it’s important to note that many people don’t engage in it due to the lack of opportunities available. In fact, 84.6% of Nepalis are employed informally across all sectors. Therefore, attempting to completely eradicate street vending, a system that many rely on, is futile. Street vending provides job opportunities and helps to alleviate poverty. While the ban may not entirely prevent people from working in this profession, it will likely lead to an increase in police brutality towards vendors and deprive people of their livelihoods. Article 6 of the International Covenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights (ICESCR), a UN treaty ratified by Nepal, outlines the government’s responsibility to create job opportunities through technical and vocational support. As such, the KMC’s decision to neither allow informal jobs nor provide job alternatives in the formal sector is a violation of the ICESCR treaty.

Way Forward
Given the importance of street vending for working-class individuals and its cultural significance in a metropolis like Kathmandu, it should not be completely eliminated. While ensuring pedestrian safety and comfort is important, the current law, if implemented, would lead to impoverishment for many working-class families. Instead, the focus should be on managing traffic between pedestrians and vendors. Countries like Thailand and India have laws that regulate and protect street vendors. Thailand’s Public Cleanliness and Orderliness Act B.E. 2535 (1992) allows for vendors in designated areas, while Bangkok has guidelines for street vending that prioritise hygiene and cleanliness. India’s Street Vendors Bill (2009) requires a town vending committee, which includes street vendors and women. This committee has a registration process and regulations on vending hours and locations. The execution and success of these laws are debatable, but the KMC should learn from these efforts to incorporate street vending in Kathmandu. Specific locations and hours can be designated for vendors, and hygiene regulations can be developed in collaboration with street vendors. The KMC should also listen to the concerns of street vendors and work towards a system that benefits both vendors and pedestrians. At the very least, the city should show empathy towards street workers. 

– SAGOON BHETWAL

The opinion piece originally appeared in The Kathmandu Post on 12 March 2023. Please read the original article here.

Research institutions in Nepal have constantly been pushing for inclusive development. Their push for evidence-based policymaking can shed light on social challenges and also guide us to create interventions to benefit marginalised communities. However, most Nepali research institutions promoting inclusive governance, human development and social justice do not reflect the diversity of Nepali society.

We can find that practices of mentoring/ advising had been carried out earlier by rulers in the country. While high-caste Brahmins led such practices, advisory bodies such as Panchakachari, Dharmiksava, and Vardarisava were formed during the Lichhavi and Malla dynasties. Likewise, pandit groups were such advisors during the Rana and Shah dynasty. These groups would advise the rulers based on Hindu philosophies and texts such as Manusmriti. Caste duties were performed based on their advice and mentoring. However, the legacy of such practices is still continuing through established research institutions. Be it governmental or private/non-governmental institutions, their composition predominantly consists of the upper caste and class.

Except for Samsodhan Mandal, which was established in 1952, private and non-governmental research organisations were established after the political change of 1990. In a study carried out in 2000, titled Nepal Ka Jatiya Prashna: Samajik Banaut Ra Sajhedariko Sambhawana, Govind Neupane analysed the ethnicity in the academic and administrative units of the Tribhuvan University (TU). He presented the institution as a Khas Sansthan based on its composition.

Later, in 2002, Krishna Hachhetu studied the social profile of researchers and professors affiliated with TU. He looked into the History, Political Science, Economics, Sociology and Anthropology departments, and research institutions under TU, including the Centre for Nepal and South Asian Studies (CNAS) and the Centre for Economic Development and Administration (CEDA). According to the study, only 11 percent among the 157 members of that organisation were women. Among them, 88 percent were Brahmin and Chhetri, 26 percent were Newar, and 5 percent other hill tribes. Similarly, there were only 8 percent Terai Madheshis, none of whom were Dalits. (Krishna Hachhetu, CNAS, Vol. 29 (1), P. 49-95, 2002). In the same way, Kiran Gautam analysed the caste profile of the initial committee of the Nepal Pragya Pratisthan from 2012 to 2072. The leadership of the Pratisthan consisted of 63 percent Brahmin-Chhetri, 20 percent Newar, 6 percent Madheshi, 5 percent Rai-Limbu, 2 percent Gurung and Magar, and 1 percent Thakali and Dalits. Another government body active in knowledge production is the Policy Research Institute, holding 73 percent Brahmin Chhetri, 15 percent Newars and 12 percent Dalits. Similarly, Madheshi, Gurung, and Jirel have one percent representation each and Tamang two percent (Himal Monthly, Sharwan, 2079 BS). The studies mentioned above show that the diversity of Nepali society is not seen in our knowledge-production institutions, especially those led by the government. The gap in social inclusion remains the same in non-governmental research institutions.

I have analysed the team composition of the leading 15 non-governmental research institutions in Nepal, which consisted of their board members, advisors, staff, interns and volunteers. Be it an institute with nine members or another with 50 members, the inclusion of Dalit team members lingered at just one individual (with the exception of two institutions). To great disappointment, around 10 such institutes did not even have a single individual from the Dalit community. Similarly, the inclusion of women in these institutions is equally disappointing. Only 6 of the 15 institutions had 50 or higher percentage of women members as directors and research staff. This exclusion of Dalits and marginalised communities in non-governmental research institutions raises two major concerns. First, our research sphere has become exclusive to the upper and privileged caste/ class. Despite changing societal context, the composition portrays that knowledge production is still meant to be led by a certain few. Such exclusions based on knowledge also determine who gets to hold power. As Michel Foucault has said, “The exercise of power perpetually creates knowledge and, conversely, knowledge constantly induces effects of power”. Therefore, it is not just about representation—a matter of acknowledging existence. Rather, our research institutions need to become inclusive to indeed welcome the presence and perspectives of Dalits and produce knowledge with their contribution and leadership. Second, the knowledge we produce is biased when we speak from our perspective and speak for the community rather than speaking with the community. The chances are high that issues of Dalits won’t be taken as a matter of urgency when nobody is in the team to put it forward. This is evident with the inadequate research on the status of the Dalit community. And even if a matter arises, the narrative can be flawed when based on assumptions rather than experiences.

Under the caste system, Brahmins were put at the top of the hierarchy and were endorsed as intellectuals. This rigid system prohibited producing knowledge and disseminating spheres to the bottom-level people and the people outside the system. But what’s the worth of our research institutions if they don’t represent the people we advocate for and become exclusive to a privileged few? Therefore, we can urge that the exclusive nature of research institutions is deliberately created to support the caste system for dehumanising Dalits through producing single narratives. The contribution of research institutions is undoubtedly significant and needs to be fostered. But such contributions can be questioned if their producing members and production are not representative of the diverse community that our policies will later impact. It is of utmost importance to be based on evidence that relays people’s status and lived experiences as we plan and carry out our development initiatives. As we identify our policy agendas, we should be able to prioritise the needs of marginalised communities that comprise a significant proportion of our population and who have historically, socially, and systematically suffered the most. This should also reflect in the composition of the institutions we create.

Research institutions create discourse about centring the most marginalised while making policies and uplifting them. But sadly, we have already fallen back because of their inability to ensure inclusion in the team they work with for such purposes. So, let’s start by questioning our institutions while we continue questioning our development priorities.

– SANTOSH Sharma Poudel

The column originally appeared in The Diplomat on 6 March 2023. Please read the original article here.

On February 27, the Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli-led Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) withdrew its support for the Pushpa Kamal Dahal-led government. The CPN-UML ministers resigned en masse, bringing down the curtain on the seven-party coalition government that was formed in Nepal barely two months ago.

To start with, this was a coalition of strange bedfellows, with parties with opposing agendas and ideologies coming together. Their lust for power was their common agenda.

Prime Minister Dahal will likely continue to lead the next government with the support of the Sher Bahadur Deuba-led Nepali Congress (NC) and six smaller parties. This marks a return to the pre-poll alliance of 2022.

Differences over the election of the new president, scheduled for March 9, provided the immediate cause for the downfall of the coalition government. In a power-sharing agreement between Dahal and Oli, the former had agreed to support the CPN-UML’s presidential candidate. However, Dahal reneged and decided to support the NC’s candidate instead.

The president is the ceremonial head of state, who is to perform all functions “on the recommendation and with the consent of the council of ministers.” However, the presidency has effectively become a permanent, untouchable veto-wielding power. Elected for five years by an electoral college, the president can only be impeached by a two-thirds majority of the Parliament, a number beyond the current fractured coalitions in Nepal. Therefore, current President Bidhya Devi Bhandari faced no consequence for approving the dissolution of the parliament twice, despite the Supreme Court reinstating parliament both times, and holding off approval of the citizenship bill despite a constitutional mandate.

Oli is miffed at Dahal’s intransigence. He knew he would control all the government strings if the president was his lieutenant. He headed the largest party in the coalition by a mile; his party leads both houses of parliament and the commissioners of many constitutional committees are his acolytes. Dahal, though the prime minister, would have been a lame duck.

That was obvious to Dahal too.

Dahal was able to play the NC and CPN-UML to remain at the center of Nepali politics despite his party winning only 29 of 275 seats in the federal parliament. That the NC voted to support his government earlier this year, despite Dahal ditching it at the last minute during government formation, did not go unnoticed.

Sources close to Dahal argue that he was taken aback after Oli showed no remorse for his attempts to dissolve the Parliament twice in 2020 and 2021 during the parliamentary address.

Dahal and Oli do not share a cordial personal relationship. Oli’s CPN-UML and Dahal’s Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Center (CPN-MC) merged to form a powerful Nepal Communist Party in 2018, with the two as co-chairs. However, the union barely lasted for two years because of the rift between the two leaders. They clashed in the public domain, attacking each other personally.

Their coming together after the 2022 elections to form a government was instrumental and not a rekindling of their relationship. Dahal’s interest in being the prime minister and Oli’s interest in breaking the NC and CPN-MC coalition led to their partnership. However, the coalition shattered as soon as interests diverged again.

Meanwhile, Deuba maintained a dignified silence and did not criticize Dahal even after the Maoist leader “betrayed” him to form the government with Oli’s support.

After pulling out support, the CPN-UML has insinuated that Dahal came under “foreign influence.” CPN-UML General Secretary Shankar Pokharel said that “external powers did not prefer the current government [of which CPN-UML was a part], and were potentially instrumental in the government change.” India and the United States were especially active this time, he observed, noting that “the [foreign] power centers did not want the CPN-UML to dominate the government.”

Visits by India’s Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra and four retired army generals in February and the flurry of visits by U.S. officials lend some credence to the allegations. The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) chief had also requested to visit Nepal, but the Nepali government felt it was not an appropriate time.

According to some analysts, India prefers a “controlled chaos” in Nepal. A strong and unified government in Nepal is not seen by officials in the Indian Ministry of External Affairs or its embassy in Nepal to be in India’s interest.

Additionally, the India-Nepal relationship was at its lowest ebb during Oli’s reign (2018-21) over the territorial dispute between the two countries. Although India and the U.S. are much closer than they were in the past, especially when it comes to China, New Delhi is concerned about increased and direct U.S. engagement in Nepal because it undercuts Indian influence in Nepal.

Nepal’s increased geostrategic importance and the implementation of the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), a $500 million grant for infrastructure projects, has led to the increased U.S. presence. With the NC set to join the government, it brings into power the coalition that ratified the MCC in February last year.

There is no denying the role of external powers, but it would be foolhardy to discount the role of the personal vested interests of key Nepali leaders in Nepal’s current political instability. The lust for power is the main reason why Dahal left his electoral alliance partner, the NC, and formed a government with the support of the CPN-UML. It explains why Oli assured Deuba that he would not support Dahal for prime minister till the last moment, only to do a volte-face. These are merely the results of instrumentality where the only currency is power. Because the leaders do not want to spell this out publicly, they hide behind blaming “hidden interests” and “external powers” for the political instability.

– निश्चल ढुङ्गेल

यो लेख १७ मार्च २०२३ को नयाँ पत्रिकामा प्रकाशित भएको थियो। मूल लेख यहाँ पढ्नुहोस्

बदलिँदो आर्थिक र राजनीतिक परिस्थितिका कारण आधुनिक विश्वव्यापीकरण इकोसिस्टम प्रणालीले सार्वजनिक ऋण बढाएको छ । सरकारले स्वदेशी वा विदेशबाट ऋण लिने अवस्थालाई सार्वजनिक ऋण भनिन्छ । आर्थिक जटिलता र महामारीका कारण हालै सरकारी खर्च राजस्व आर्जन गर्ने क्षमताभन्दा छिटो बढेको छ । ब्याजदर वृद्धि हुँदै गर्दा बढ्दो ऋणले विकासोन्मुख राष्ट्रको सरकारी बजेटलाई असर गर्छ, जसले गर्दा यस्ता अर्थतन्त्रमा लगानी गर्नुपर्छ ।

आर्थिक र राजनीतिक परिस्थिति सन्तुलन र सार्वजनिक ऋण व्यवस्थापन एकसाथ जान्छ । मुख्य ऋणदाताबीच सहमति हुन नसक्दा श्रीलंका आर्थिक र सामाजिक कठिनाइबाट गुज्रिरहेको छ । तसर्थ, श्रीलंका भूराजनीतिक विचारको चपेटामा पर्दा सार्वभौम ऋण पुनर्संरचना हुन सकेको छैन ।

श्रीलंकाको सार्वजनिक ऋण कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादन (जिडिपी) अनुपात २०१८–२१ बीच ९१ बाट ११९ प्रतिशत बढेको थियो । यस्तै, सार्वजनिक ऋण जिडिपी अनुपात २०२२ मा १२२ प्रतिशत थियो । यसमध्ये जिडिपीको ७० प्रतिशत विदेशी मुद्रामा निहित छ ।

श्रीलंकाको संकट बाह्य आर्थिक झट्का र नीतिगत गलत कदमको संयोजनले भएको हो । उसले लिएको सार्वजनिक ऋण न्यून प्रतिफलका पूर्वाधार आयोजनामा लगानी गर्दा सदुपयोग हुन सकेन । सार्वजनिक ऋण सन्तुलनमा नराख्दा, थप ऋण व्यवस्थापन गर्न देश कसरी भूराजनीतिक विचारको जटिलतामा फस्न सक्छ भन्ने ज्वलन्त उदाहरण श्रीलंका हो । नेपाल र श्रीलंकाको सार्वजनिक ऋणको अवस्था फरक भए पनि नेपालले केही पाठ भने सिक्न जरुरी छ ।

नेपालले सन् १९५१ मा बजेट ल्याउन थालेको थियो र बजेट अभ्यास सुरु भएको ११ वर्षपछि ऋण लिन थालेको थियो । हाम्रो सार्वजनिक ऋणको इतिहास धेरै पुरानो छैन । सरकारले सन् १९६२ मा स्वदेशी ऋण लिन थालेको थियो भने वैदेशिक ऋण सन् १९६३ मा मात्रै स्वीकृत भएको थियो । भूकम्पपछि संघीय सरकारमा परिणत भएपछि नेपालको सार्वजनिक ऋण विगत केही वर्षदेखि बढेर आर्थिक वर्ष सन् २०१९–२० मा कुल जिडिपीको ४२.२ प्रतिशत पुगेको छ ।

 आव २०१६–१७ मा सार्वजनिक ऋण जिडिपीको २५ प्रतिशत थियो भने २०१९–२० मा भएको उल्लेखनीय सार्वजनिक ऋण वृद्धिका लागि कोभिड महामारीको प्रभाव र प्रतिक्रिया जिम्मेवार छन् । आव २०२०–२१ मा नेपालको ऋण जिडिपी अनुपात ३९ प्रतिशत छ ।

नेपालले बहुपक्षीय संस्था र विदेशी मुलुकबाट सहुलियतपूर्ण विदेशी सहायता (अनुदान वा लामो चुक्ता अवधिको २ प्रतिशतभन्दा कम ऋण) मा पहुँच भएका कारण नेपालले उच्च ब्याजदरमा ठूला व्यावसायिक वैदेशिक ऋण लिने आवश्यकता कम छ । विश्व बैंकका अनुसार नेपालको ऋण संकट जोखिम बाह्य र कुल ऋण दुवैमा न्यून छ । अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय विकास सहयोग नीति (२०१९) ले नेपाललाई वैदेशिक व्यावसायिक ऋण लिन अनुमति दिएको भए पनि नेपालले यो अवसरलाई सदुपयोग गर्न सकेको छैन । नेपालले उच्च ब्याजदरमा ठूला व्यावसायिक वैदेशिक ऋण लिँदा होसियार हुनुपर्छ । 

उच्च ब्याजको व्यावसायिक ऋणले प्रभावकारी प्रतिफल दिन्छ कि दिँदैन भन्ने विश्लेषण गर्नुपर्छ । ताराप्रसाद उपाध्याय र टोनिक पुनले सन् १९७८–२०२० सम्मको तथ्यांक प्रयोग गरी गरेको नेपालको आर्थिक वृद्धिमा सार्वजनिक ऋण प्रभावको अध्ययनले नेपालको सार्वजनिक ऋणको स्तर र देशको आर्थिक विस्तारबीच कुनै स्पष्ट सम्बन्ध नभएको संकेत गर्छ । राजस्वका सीमित स्रोतका कारण सरकारी राजस्वभन्दा सरकारी खर्च द्रुत गतिमा बढेको छ । 

सरकारले मुख्यतया कमजोर क्षेत्रका लागि ऋण लिएको छ । राजस्व अभावले अघिल्लो ऋण तिर्न र अर्काे ऋण लिन बाध्य पारेको छ । हालको पुँजी ऋणको केही रकम सेयर बजार र जग्गामा छ । अपर्याप्त आन्तरिक स्रोत परिचालन, अत्यधिक वित्तीय घाटा, निर्यात–आयातको असन्तुलन र राजस्व र खर्चको अन्तरका कारण वैदेशिक ऋण झनै बढेको छ । तसर्थ, केही लेखकले दिगो आर्थिक वृद्धि र लगानीलाई हतोत्साहित गर्नुको सट्टा प्रोत्साहन गर्ने सम्भावना रहेसम्म घाटा वित्तपोषणलाई ध्यानमा राख्नुहुँदैन भनी तर्क गर्छन् । यसबाहेक, ऋण चुक्ता गर्ने क्षमतामा कुनै सुधार हुन सकेको छैन, अझै बाँकी रहेको सार्वजनिक ऋणको कुल रकम र ब्याजमा वृद्धि भएको छ ।

विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चितिको आधारमा देशको ऋण अवस्थाको विश्लेषण गर्नु पनि महत्वपूर्ण छ । अमेरिकी डलरको तुलनामा नेपाली रुपैयाँ कमजोर हुँदा स्थानीय मुद्रामा नेपालको ऋण दायित्व बढेको छ । विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति घट्दै गएको र विदेशी ऋणदाताबाट सरकारी उधारो बढिरहेका वेला विदेशी मुद्रा ऋण भुुक्तानी अझ चुनौतीपूर्ण हुन सक्छ ।

नेपालको प्रत्यक्ष वैदेशिक लगानी (एफडिआई) जिडिपीको ०.५ प्रतिशत दक्षिण एसियामा सबैभन्दा कम हो । एफडिआई थ्रेसहोल्ड एनपिआर दुई करोडमा घटाउँदा एफडिआईको प्रवाहमा थप कमी आउँछ । थप पुँजी प्रवाह प्रतिबन्धले जिडिपीमा नकारात्मक प्रभाव पार्न सक्छ, तर एफडिआईले राष्ट्रको ऋण नबढाउने र विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चितिमा तनाव कम गर्ने अतिरिक्त लाभ प्रदान गर्दछ । 

सरकारले लामो समयदेखि ढिलाइ भएको एफडिआईमा सुधार ल्याउनुपर्छ । जस्तै, नियामक स्वीकृति प्रक्रियालाई सरल बनाउने, जसले विदेशी मुद्रा प्रवाह निम्त्याउने र विकासलाई बढावा दिन पुँजी र प्रविधिको स्थानान्तरणलाई प्रोत्साहित गर्ने । सरकारले अहिले मुलुकको विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति बढाउन विभिन्न प्रयास गरिरहेको छ ।

बढ्दो ऋण रोक्न नयाँ पारित सार्वजनिक ऋण व्यवस्थापन ऐनले जिडिपीको एकतिहाइमा बाह्य ऋणको सीमा तोकेको छ । यो उपाय सरकारलाई लापरबाहीपूर्वक ऋण लिनबाट रोक्न र भविष्यमा थप पैसा उधारो गर्न समय तालिकामा ऋण तिर्न उत्प्रेरित गर्नका लागि हो । नेपालले विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति घट्न नदिन विलासिताका सामानको आयातमा प्रतिबन्ध लगाउने विभिन्न उपाय पनि ल्यायो र विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति बढेपछि प्रतिबन्ध हटायो । यी अन्तर्निहित विशेषताले हालको विश्वव्यापी उथलपुथलको बढ्दो मूल्य, रेमिट्यान्समा प्रभाव र फराकिलो व्यापार असन्तुलनप्रति नेपालले कस्तो प्रतिक्रिया देखाउँछ भन्ने कुरालाई निरन्तरता दिनेछ ।

आव ०७९/८० माघ मसान्तको पहिलो ६ महिनाको राजस्व संकलन गत वर्षको तुलनामा १५ प्रतिशतले घटेको छ । प्रक्षेपणअनुसार राजस्व उठाउन नसक्दा अर्थ मन्त्रालयले संघीय सरकारको बजेट २० प्रतिशतले घटाएको छ ।पारिश्रमिक, निवृत्तिभरण, सामाजिक सुरक्षा र रासायनिक मल र विपद् व्यवस्थापनमा दिइने अनुदानको बढ्दो दायित्वले सरकारको चालू खर्चमा बाधा पुगेको छ । स्वदेशी तथा अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय ऋणको ब्याज सरकारले तिर्नुपर्छ । अमेरिकी डलरको तुलनामा नेपाली रुपैयाँको अवमूल्यनले वैदेशिक ऋण तिर्न महँगो साबित हुनेछ ।

चालू आर्थिक वर्षको बजेटमार्फत ८ प्रतिशत आर्थिक वृद्धि हासिल गर्ने लक्ष्य लिएको सरकारले ४.५ प्रतिशत मात्रै पुग्ने बताएको छ । चालू आवमा लिएको महत्वाकांक्षी लक्ष्य पूरा नहुने देखिएको छ । बाह्य क्षेत्रको दबाब र आर्थिक चुनौतीलाई बेवास्ता गरी निर्धारण गरिएका यस्ता लक्ष्यले सरकारलाई संसद्प्रति वित्तीय जवाफदेही बनाउँदैन । सरकारले विगत सात महिनामा सिद्धान्तविपरीत थप रकम परिचालन गरेको छ । अर्थ मन्त्रालयको विज्ञप्तिअनुसार मंसिरमा भएको संघीय र प्रदेशको निर्वाचनलाई लक्षित गरी असोजमा रकम वितरण गरिएको उल्लेख छ । 

अर्थ मन्त्रालयले जारी गरेको विवरणअनुसार पछिल्लो सात महिनामा ८५ अर्ब ६० करोडभन्दा बढी बजेट सिद्धान्तविपरीत परिचालन भएको छ । बजेट जनप्रतिनिधिमूलक सर्वाेच्च संस्था संसद्बाट पारित गरिन्छ । सरकारले गर्ने आय–व्ययको हरहिसाब संसद्ले अनुमोदन गरेपछि मात्रै निर्धारण हुन्छ । देश विकासको नारा लगाउँदै सरकारमा बस्ने राजनीतिक नेतृत्वले चुनावमा मतदाता रिझाउने गरी पैसा बाँड्न ढुकुटी दोहन गर्नु कत्तिको जायज छ ?

नेपालका राज्य संस्थामा ‘चेक एन्ड ब्यालेन्स’ समस्या भइरहेका छन् । सुशासनका लागि उत्कृष्ट नेतृत्वको अलावा पारदर्शिता, जवाफदेहिता, चेक एन्ड ब्यालेन्स आवश्यक छ । सरकारले ०२३ मा कर छली रोक्न र आफ्नो राजस्वको आधारलाई फराकिलो बनाउन, सार्वजनिक उधारोका लागि देशको आवश्यकता बढाउन संघर्ष गर्नेछ । नयाँ सरकार आएसँगै वित्तीय र मौद्रिक नीतिलाई ‘सिंक्रोनाइज’ गर्दै उत्पादनशील क्षेत्रमा लगानी बढाउन तरलता अभावलाई कम गर्नुपर्छ । 

संरचनात्मक अवरोध सम्बोधन

पूर्वउपलब्धिको निर्माण र संरचनात्मक अवरोधलाई सम्बोधन गर्नाले विकासलाई गति दिन, निजी लगानी आकर्षित गर्न, उत्पादकत्व बढाउन र अल्पविकसित देशको स्थितिबाट सफलतापूर्वक उत्तीर्ण हुन र सन् २०२६ सम्म निम्नमध्यम आयको स्थिति हासिल गर्न जलवायु अनुकूलता विकास गर्न मद्दत गर्नेछ । आर्थिक वृद्धिका लागि नेपालको योजना र कसरी व्यापार, पूर्वाधार, विनिमय दर र अन्य आर्थिक नीतिले आर्थिक विकासमा सहयोग पु‍¥याउँछ भन्ने अझै स्पष्ट छैन ।

व्यापार र प्रत्यक्ष वैदेशिक लगानीलाई प्रोत्साहन गर्ने वातावरण, वित्तीय क्षेत्रको वृद्धि, मानव पुँजी निर्माण र सुशासन अभिवृद्धि गरी विकासको सम्भावना बढाउनुपर्छ । राष्ट्रले ऋण लिएको रकम उत्पादनशील क्षेत्रमा उपयोग गरी सरकारको ऋण न्यूनीकरणमा सहयोग गर्ने कार्यक्रम बनाउनुपर्छ । नेपालले सन् २०२६ मा एलडिसी समूहबाट बाहिरिने योजना बनाएकाले ऋण चुक्ता गर्न उच्च दक्षता स्तर भएका उत्पादक क्षेत्रमा लगानी गरेर दिगो अर्थतन्त्र निर्माण गर्न ऋण लिएको रकमको लामो समयमा चुक्ता गर्ने अवधिसहित कम ब्याजदरको फाइदा उठाउनु महत्वपूर्ण हुन्छ ।